Inflow forecast
model output — not a measurementNOAA’s National Water Model, short-range run issued Jul 5, 1 PM CT, for the five gauged tributary reaches. The model routes rainfall that has already fallen plus near-term forecast precipitation.
Gauged inflow now
175.5
cfs · measured
Peak next 18h
291
cfs · ~7 AM CT · modeled
Projected volume
378
acre-feet over 18h · modeled
Naive lake effect
+0.02 ft
if it all reached Travis · inferred
Projected flow by tributary reach
Dashed = forecast. Values are at the gauges, not at the lake — water takes hours to a couple of days to travel downstream (rain near Junction typically reaches Lake Travis in roughly 36–48 hours). Flows are projected to rise meaningfully. National Water Model via NOAA/NWS · public domain.
The “naive lake effect” spreads the projected inflow volume over Lake Travis’s estimated current surface area, ignoring travel time, channel losses, Buchanan storage decisions, and releases — it is a scale reference, not a prediction of the actual lake level. During floods, watch the live dashboard instead.